Thursday, 23 March 2017

UPP Holdings Limited - Recent announcements and what to make of them


Listed on main board of Singapore Exchange on 15 October 1980
Business activities (obtained from UPP's website)

Singapore - Investment holding and rental and management of properties.

Malaysia - Produces industrial grade papers such as Testliner, corrugating Medium, Chip Board and more from 100% recycled waste paper

Myanmar - Built and operates a 50 megawatt gas-fired electricity generating plant in Ywama, Myanmar

From the Key Metrics, UPP Holdings Limited is a company that has practically no debt, and runs a stable business. Nothing much to complain about unless you are looking for explosive growth.

What I actually intend to focus on are their recent announcements.

Announcement 1
Placement of 40,000,000 shares at $0.25 to 4 individuals

I took the liberty and googled for more information regarding them. I have to declare first that I am unsure if the below is the correct person or if they just happen to share the exact same name. I chose the person that most likely fits the bill. 

Mohamed Nazir Bin Abdul Razak - 16,000,000

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=8367777&privcapId=877377

John Vlasto - 14,000,000
Unfortunately I could not find much information online to draw a conclusion as to the identity of Mr John Vlasto.

Hsieh Fu Hua - 8,000,000
Source: http://www.gic.com.sg/about-gic/corporate-governance?id=227

Chan Chia Lin - 2,000,000
Source: https://www.moh.gov.sg/eldershieldreview
Total - 40,000,000
The subscribers were introduced to the company by business associates of the Group as strategic investors. Each subscriber's subscription of the Subscription Shares is for investment purposes only
Each Subscriber has undertaken to the Company that he/she shall not, for a period of 6 months commencing from and including the date of issue and allotment of the Subscription Shares to him/her, directly r indirectly offer, sell, contract to sell, transfer, pledge grant any option to purchase, grant any security over, encumber or otherwise dispose of, any of the Subscription Shares.
I have to admit that I'm pretty impressed with the above names. I'm unsure if the sources are updated to reflect current day situation but nevertheless, their credentials (past or present) speak for themselves and if UPP Holdings Limited managed to entice the 4 investors to invest in them, it pretty much shows promise in their future earnings.

Announcement 2
Warrants - I brushed up my knowledge of warrants via investopedia but feel free to correct me if I made any mistakes.

Exercise price: $0.37
Last transacted price: $0.19
Warrants listed on 16 February 2017
Exercise date: 6 months from listed date
Warrants will be in the money should the share price rise above $0.37

Warrants Premium:  [(warrant price + Exercise price - current share price) / current share price]* 100
[($0.19 + $0.37 - $0.28)]/$0.28 = no premium?
Goes to show that early investors with warrants are already sitting on large gains.

Setting a high exercise price is a sign that the company is confident about the stock performance and it bodes well for long term investors.

Disclaimer: I'm currently not vested in UPP Holdings Limited. The above information are based on my limited understanding and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Always do your own due diligence before taking any actions.

Thursday, 16 March 2017

Kimly Limited IPO - Balloted



You've probably heard of the saying IPO, instead of Initial Public Offering, stands for It's Probably Overpriced. The owners of the companies that chooses to go for IPO will only list the stock if they have the impression that they are able to gain something from listing, be it excess funds to expand the business or reduce debts, obtaining public status deeming them easier to clinch public tenders, etc. The owners are offering part of their business to public shareholders and obviously won't do it at a price that is not favourable to them. On their part, they have to access what is a reasonable premium to price it such that market participants will not be turned off by unfair valuations.

So why did I choose to ballot for this IPO?

1. Mr IPO rated it highly
The expert in this field is vested in it via way of placement and gave it a rating of 3 Chilis. I had been following him for some time, reading up on his analysis (usually just scroll down to the end and read how many chilis he's giving the IPO) of IPOs and generally, he seldom make the wrong calls. He also openly declare if he is vested in the IPOs so readers can make a fair judgement. Despite being vested, he still gave an objective view of the business nonetheless (that's what I feel).  

2. Issue price of $0.25 
Figures obtained from sgx.com
$0.25 is the price that Jumbo Group Limited, Singapore O&G Ltd as well as MM2 Asia Ltd chose to list their shares. If you held onto these 3 stocks from IPO or bought them on the first day and held until now, you would have gotten some multi baggers in your portfolio.

3. Good management team
The track record of the management speak for themselves. They manage 56 coffee shops, 3 industrial canteens and 5 food courts in tertiary institutions. On top of that, they also operate 121 food stalls including 36 mixed vegetable rice stalls as well as 43 dim sum stalls. Here's the clincher. They have no debts in their balance sheets. Expansions don't take place overnight meaning which, they grew their business bit by bit without leveraging and using the cash generated from their business. This shows they are prudent with handling cash and with the added funds from the IPO, ceteris paribus, they should be able to expand their business further prudently.

4. Mismatch of demand and supply
Cornerstone investors, Vanda and ICH have a lock in period before they can sell their shares. Public tranche is pitiful at only 3.8m shares whereas placement shares amount to 173.8m shares. Hence, people like me who balloted for the shares actually got a very low chance of getting any. The lucky few who managed to be allotted will probably not have too many shares until that they are comfortable with. Therefore, the people on the street who really want a part of this business will have to purchase it through the open market when it launch on Monday. I feel that demand for this IPO is likely to be strong given that they have presence over Singapore and it is a business that is easy to understand. Hence there is a mismatch of demand and supply.

The above 4 points are why I balloted 208k shares. 

Strategy
My strategy for this IPO is simple. 
Allocated = Keep for long term. Set "stop loss" to the opening price or the closing price, whichever is higher. 

Not allocated = Will probably not chase this stock despite high chances of contra gain  

Friday, 10 March 2017

GuocoLand - Divestment opportunity

This afternoon, a little after having had my lunch, I was doing some routine checks on my stocks only to find that Guocoland reached my buy price of $1.875. Not only that, the price kept on climbing and the sell queue was being consumed fast and furious. 1.88 1.89 1.9 1.905 ...

I switched to a neighbouring watch list which contains more property counters such as Capitaland, CDL, Wingtai, and indeed, they were all as excited as Guocoland. I went to browse Investing Note hoping for an answer but it seemed like the community was as clueless as I.

Only an industry wide change can create such an impact. I was thinking along the lines that perhaps ABSD / TDSR were reduced or even removed!

After awhile, the news finally released. I read and reread the article at least 3 times. By then, Guocoland was already hovering near their day peak of $1.95. I could not comprehend the rapid rise in prices as I couldn't extract significant positives from the policy changes. At best, I felt that it is only a slight tweak to the property cooling measures. But I thought others knew better hence I held on.

When the price continued dropping to 1.915 / 192, I decided to take action and divest. Remember that I bought the stock because it was a laggard in the previous property rally? It had since closed that gap (at least by a little) with today's surge and for now, I believe in locking in a small gain and wait for the market to calm down and fully digest the news.

Do also read this article that was also released this afternoon. It paints a grim picture for developers who still have unsold properties and could face QC charges. Essentially, it closed off an escape route that white knights can offer the developers. For Guocoland, which was considering an option that could be somewhat similar, it doesn't bode well. On the other hand, it could force the developer's hand into taking the stock private as it is still very under valued and with many catalyst for better earnings ahead.

From today's action, what I can conclude is that the property sector is indeed heavily suppressed. A small tweak sent a ripple, removal or easing of key cooling measures such as ABSD and TDSR is going to create huge waves.

Disclaimer: I'm currently not vested in GuocoLand. The above information are based on my limited understanding and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Always do your own due diligence before taking any actions.

Monday, 27 February 2017

QAF - What's with the heavy sell down?

QAF reported earnings on 24th February (Friday) after office hours. When market opened today, QAF suffered a heavy sell down from $1.53 to a low of $1.375. before recovering slightly to close at $1.415.

Summarised Results:

Full Year Revenue declined 11%
Profit after tax gain 113%, due to exceptional item
Earnings per share excluding exceptional items: 10.9 cents vs 9.4 cents
Earnings per share including exceptional items: 21.4 cents vs 9.4 cents
NAV Group 93.8 cents versus 76.1 cents
Proposed final dividends of 4 cents per share, totalling 5 cents per share for the year. (unchanged)

Exceptional items:
"Group 'Exceptional Items' relate to the Group's sale of its 20% shareholding interest in Gardennia Bakeries (KL) Sdn Bhd ('GBKL') which was completed and announced by the Group on 6 April 2-16. The purpose of the sale of the 2-% shareholding interest was to comply with the Malaysian governmental regulatory condition imposed on GBKL's manufacturing license. Accordingly, GBKL has ceased to be a subsidiary of the Group and has become a Joint Venture of the Group."

According to Investopedia:
A joint venture (JV) is a business arrangement in which two or more parties agree to pool their resources for the purpose of accomplishing a specific task. The task can be a new project or any other business activity. 
A subsidiary is a company with voting stock that is more than 50% controlled by another company, usually referred to as the parent company or the holding company. A subsidiary is partly or completely owned by the parent company, which holds a controlling interest in the subsidiary company. In cases where a parent company owns a foreign subsidiary, the subsidiary must follow the laws of the country where it is incorporated and operates, and the parent company carries the foreign subsidiary's financials on its consolidated financial statements. 
Exceptional item recognition:
"Previously, the Group has recognised an exceptional gain of $9.7 million as a result of the sale of its 20% shareholding in GBKL, as announced in the Group's financial results for the second Quarter ended 30 June 2016 on 12 August 2016. Subsequently, in compliance with Singapore Financial Reporting Standards, the Group, with assistance of external independent advisors, carried out an exercise to determine the fair values of the Group's remaining 50% stake in GBKL's identifiable assets and liabilities. 
As a result, a net exceptional gain of $59.4 million arising from the sale of 20% stake in GBKL and the remeasurement of the remaining 50% stake in GBKL has been recognised during the year" 
Analysis of Statement of Cash Flow (I may be wrong on this)
Cash flow from operating activities
Profit before Tax: $130,615,000 (Inclusive of $59.4m gain from sale of GBKL)
Gain on dilution of interest in a subsidiary company: ($59,375,000)
Essentially, Cash flow from Operating activities did not change as they cancel out each other

Cash flow from investing activities
Net cash inflow from dilution of interest in a subsidiary company (Note A): $986,000
Under Note A:
Main bulk of the cash is classified as reclassification to Joint Venture: $81,906,000
Under their Statement of financial position, non current assets, Joint Venture is recorded as $76,318,000, beefing up their assets. (I got no idea how to account for the balance $5,588,000)

Under review of the performance of the group
Other than the above mentioned deconsolidation of the financial results of GBKL, increases in sales were achieved by all business segments of the Group - Bakery, Primary Production and Trading & Logistics. 
Despite the deconsolidation of the financial results of GBKL and the resulting declassification and exclusion of GBKL's operating profits from the Group's consolidated operating profits from April 2016 onwards, the Group still achieved an increase in Profit Before Taxation of 90% to $130,8 million in FY 2016 from $68.8million in FY 2015. Excluding the one-off Exceptional Items of $59.4 million, Group PBT of $71.2 million increased by 4% and this increase is mainly attributable to the increased profitability in Rivalea. Rivalea achieved increases in profitability through higher average selling prices from a better product mix, increased sales volumes, productivity gains, increased meat processing activities and lower operating costs, in particular, lower feed costs. 
Essentially, it seemed to me that the reason for the sell down is due to investors expecting more from QAF's performance. Share prices had increased by 50% from the $1 range one year ago to $1.50 range but earnings excluding exceptional items did not reflect the share price surge hence there is a correction this morning. Based on past performance as a guide for current value, QAF should trade in the range of $1.04~1.10. But considering the exposure given to QAF by many established financial bloggers, notably ASSI, value has somewhat been realised by the investing crowd over the year. Compared to other similar companies, it had been concluded that QAF is still under valued.

Either way, I took advantage of the sell down today and took up a position in QAF.

Disclaimer: I'm currently vested in QAF. The above information are based on my limited understanding and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Always do your own due diligence before taking any actions.


Thursday, 16 February 2017

ISOTeam - HY2017 Results

ISOTeam released their half year 2017 results on 13 February and I'm viewing it with mixed feelings. It's a decent (stable), but far from spectacular, set of results.
  • Earnings per share of 1.43 cents failed to hit my estimate of 1.986 cents to justify their run up in price from $0.31 to $0.42. In fact, the earnings per share over the corresponding period for HY2015 was even higher at 1.49 cents. 
  • Revenue increased by 0.1% from $44,754,000 to $44,689,000. 
    • Considering that they expanded into Myanmar, and I quote from the presentation slide: 
    • "won 4 new contracts in November and December 2016 including Times City, a mixed-use development located on 10 acres in central Yangon" 
    • Winning their first Home Improvement Project (HIP) project, etc. 
    • Shouldn't the logical result be an increase in revenue, ceteris paribus? 
  • Gross profit increased by 15.8% helped by a decrease in cost of sales by 4.9%
    • I can understand if cost of sales increased due to higher manpower required to tackle the new segments, but decrease in cost of sales despite expanding into new segments is commendable. 
  • Profit for the period declined by 6.5% after factoring in taxes and other expenses
  • Net cash used in operating activities of -$1,490,000, with the bulk of it going into contract work in progress and trade and other payables. 

With the above being said, prospect still look bright for ISOTeam. If, and that's a big if, the first foray into Myanmar is positive for them, it opens up a new market which they can replicate their operations with what they are currently doing in Singapore, thereby achieving economies of scale. Remember how Myanmar play was all the hype when they started allowing foreign investments and many companies are vying to develop the place up? A few years have passed and time is about ripe for ISOTeam to do the necessary refurbishments or touch up works for the properties developed then.

Synergies with Nippon Paint will likely give them an added advantage into clinching new contracts by entering into markets that Nippon Paint has a presence in. Being the second largest shareholder of ISOTeam with 5.58% ownership, it bodes well for them if ISOTeam performs well too.

Market is forward looking, hence even with STI in deep red, it ISOTeam only dropped by 1 cent to close at $0.405 on 14 Feb 2017. Probably the growth story is still viewed positively and market are pricing it at a premium to factor in future growth. For me, I will not be vesting in ISOTeam as there is no significant margin of safety at the moment.

Disclaimer: I'm currently not vested in ISOTeam. The above information are based on my limited understanding and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Always do your own due diligence before taking any actions. 

Friday, 10 February 2017

GuocoLand - Updates on Risks factors

GuocoLand was mentioned in this week's edition of The Edge Magazine under the Property Pullout titled: Pickup in sales of new luxury condos. There are some points which were brought out and perhaps to have a clearer understanding of some of the risks involved, I quote some passages from it.

Quoted from the article:
At GuocoLand's mixed-use Tanjong Pagar Centre, a 646 sq ft, one-bedder on the 42nd floor of the soon-to-be-completed Wallich Residence was sold for close to $1.92m ($2,970 psf), according to a caveat lodged on Jan 25. This brings the total number of units sold in the 181-unit development to 17. The project has yet to be launched. Prior to this January transaction, a 1,625 sq ft unit on the 51st floor was sold for $5.26 million ($3,238 psf) in March 2015. 
At Leedon Heights, the freehold 381-unit Leedon Residence was completed in 3Q2015. Developed by GuocoLand, the project saw strong sales after it received its Temporary Occupation Permit. The two most recent caveats lodged in January were for two-bedroom units of 1,044 sq ft: THe one on the seventh floor fetched $2.43 million ($2,327 psf), while that on the 10th floor was sold for $2.48 million ($2,375 psf).
More units at Leedon Residence were snapped up recently, but have yet to be reflected in the caveats, says SRI's Koh. A week ago, he brokered the sale of two large units in the project. One was a 2,648 sq fe, four-bedder that sold for $5.56 million, while the other was a 4,074 sq ft, five-bedder that fetched $8.8 million. The largest unit at Leedon Residence is the 8,051 sq ft, five-bedroom garden suite. It was recently sold for $12.5 million in a deal brokered by Bruce Lye, SRI's other managing partner.
The three units at Leedon Residence recently brokered by SRI were bought by Singaporeans. These high-net-worth individuals live in the Good Class Bungalow estate of the neighbouring Leedon Park and are buying units at Leedon Residence for their children, says Koh. "They are attracted by the exclusivity of the project and its lush sprawling 5ha site, which is one of the largest freehold sites in prime District 10."
To date, about 290 units have been sold. According to sources, the developer is in negotiations with several private funds that are interested in buying the remaining 91 units in Leedon Residence. It has to sell all the remaining units by end-June to avoid QC penalty charges. 
Key points to ponder about:
  •  Qualifying Certificate (QC) 
    • Essentially, all foreign developers are required to apply for QC when buying residential land for development
    • Developer gets 5 years to build the project and 2 more years to sell it. 
    • Developers can pay an extension fee to extend the deadline by up to 3 years
      • 8% of the purchase price of the land for the first year
      • 16% of the purchase price of the land for the second year
      • 24% of the purchase price of the land for the third year.
    • To avoid paying for QC penalty charges for Leedon Residences, GuocoLand chose to go the route of finding private funds. If found, it is a win win situation as GuocoLand can avoid the charges and the private funds will be able to purchase units at a discount and lease / sell them when the market conditions get better.
  • Wallich Residence, though yet to be released, had already sold 17 out of 181 units. 
    • I'm guessing that these are probably sold to directors or business associates indicating high demand for the project. The location and prestige of the project will likely entice buyers in itself. 
  •  High-net-worth individuals are really amazing to be able to afford a GCB and still have excess money to purchase condos in Prime district for their children. 
    • They will incur ABSD (since they already have a GCB) if they were to purchase it under their own name. Hence, it makes perfect sense to buy it for their children since they will save a sizeable chunk of money that way. 
    • I do hope to be able to do the same for my future children when the time comes because housing prices are unlikely to go back to how it was 10 years ago and similarly, 10 years later, housing prices are impossible to be the same level as it is now. 
    • Have you bought your ticket to become a high-net-worth individual? If you have, good luck for the $12m toto draw tonight at 9.30pm! 



Wednesday, 8 February 2017

GuocoLand - Laggard in property sector resurgence

Over the past month, property developers listed on SGX staged a strong resurgence with many of them nearing / hitting their 52 weeks high. As can be seen from the image below, all of them are within 90% of their 52 weeks high. The more established names such as CapitaLand and CityDev are just whiskers away from theirs.

Closing price as at 7 February vs 52 weeks High
Had been contemplating investing in the property sector since valuations had been severely depressed due to Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) implemented by the government to stablise housing prices and keep them affordable to avoid a housing bubble. With Budget 2017 releasing soon, it appears that many are hoping for the polices to take a softer stance.

Unfortunately, being absorbed by work over the past month meant missing out on the recovery of the bulk of the sector. I took a look at financial reports of WingTai and GuocoLand, stocks that still have some room before hitting their 52 weeks high, and decided to invest in GuocoLand on 7 Feb 2017. I chose not to invest in WingTai as they have exposure to the retail segment which I'm not so keen on. I prefer a pure property play for this current stock pick.

Some Highlights of GuocoLand

1. Low Price to Book
2. Sustainable dividends (information extracted from poems):

3. Shareholding structure (extracted from SGX StockFacts):

Company's interest is aligned with shareholders since 72.49% of shares is owned by parent, making them a possible takeover target.  

4. Key Excerpts extracted from Financial Report 2016
Chairman's Statement: Supporting the Group's growth strategy is a prudent capital management approach to maintain a healthy financial position. The Group's debt has been reduced by $1.45 billion as compared to a year ago, while total cash has increased by $767 million. With strong cash flow from operating and investing activities, the Group's gearing ratio has been halved from 1.5 times as at 30 June 2015 to 0.7 times as at 30 June 2016
The Group continues to execute its strategic goals of growing recurring income through investment properties to sustain future growth, as well as to realise capital value of its investments when opportunities arise.
Wallich Residence, SIngapore's tallest luxury residences at Tanjong Pagar Centre expected to receive its TOP in the fourth quarter of 2016. The official launch is expected to take place in early 2017 when construction is complete and potential buyers will be able to experience first-hand the true value of owning an asset in Singapore's newest landmark.
Key Risks:
1. Residential projects in Singapore are mostly concentrated on prime districts which requires higher outlay and restrict the pool of available buyers
Current Launch
New Launch

2. Property market continues to be lacklustre with no signs of cooling measures being relaxed in the near term.

Disclaimer: I'm currently vested in GuocoLand. The above information are based on my limited understanding and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Always do your own due diligence before taking any actions.